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John, surely you know that home sales have more than doubled in just last five years as is one of the longest and richest housing booms. Ever truely has made some of us feel pretty wealthy, well, now like the Grinch, there is an expert who says we are ahead of a big fall and unfortunately, he really may know something the rest of us don't.

"Interests have been going up and up and up, and people think it's gonna go on forever. But you know it cannot go on forever."
Sure you've heard before, but this is the guy whose last book Irrational Exuberance predicted the .com collapse. Now the Yale economist Robert Shiller warns the euphoria that drove tax stocks record highs looks a lot like a fever that have gripped the real estate market. This bubble is ready to pop as they always do.

"When prices keep going up, and we see a lot of excitement and talk about it, we get drawn in. That's irrational exuberance and that's what's happening right now in the real estate market."

How bad will it be? Shiller predicts housing prices could fall as much as 40% over the next generation -- triggering a recession. He's trying decades of housing prices to support his dire prediction, digging to historical documents to find the numbers, because few housing reports were kept before the 1970's.

But other top economists see Shiller something of Chicken Little, and say, the sky is not ready to fall, at least not yet. For the rest of this year, it looks like the housing market is actually quite strong. We start in construction but after that I would worry.

That's how the story illustrates interest rates are still pretty low, demand is still pretty high, and most economists believe, John, that is enough to keep prices from falling very far, very fast, we'll see though.

Alright, Joei Chen in Washington for us today. Joei, Thanks.

 
 
real estate   property consisting of houses and land
     
exuberance   overflowing with enthusiasm
     
dire   So serious as to be at the point of crisis
 
 
 

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