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The Population Bomb World population growth -- and how to slow it -- continues to be a
subject of great controversy. The planet's poorest nations have yet to
find effective ways to check their population increase -- at least without
restricting citizens' rights and violating such traditions as the custom of
having large families as insurance in old age. India, for example, has
abandoned coercive birth control procedures, even though the country,
with a population of 635 million, is growing by a million new people per
month.
Except for thermonuclear war, population growth is the gravest issue
the world faces over the decades immediately ahead. In many ways it
is an even more dangerous and subtle threat than war, for it is less subject
to rational safeguards, and less amenable to organized control. It is not
in the exclusive control of a few governments, but rather in the hands
of hundreds of millions of individual parents. The population threat must
be faced -- like the nuclear threat -- for what it inevitably is: a central
determinant of mankind's future, one requiring far more attention than
it is presently receiving.
In 1976 the world's population passed 4 billion. Barring a holocaust
brought on by man or nature, the world's population right now is the
smallest it will ever be again. How did it reach 4 billion ? For the first
99%, of man's existence, surprisingly slowly. For the last 1% of history,
in a great rush. By 1750, the total had reached only about 800 million.
Then, as the Industrial Revolution gathered momentum, population
growth began rapidly to accelerate. By 1900, it had doubled to 1.6 billion;
by 1964, it had doubled again to 3.2 billion; and by the end of the century,
it is projected to double again to about 6.3 billion. Given today's level
of complacency in some quarters, and discouragement in others, the likely
scenario is for a world stabilized at about 11 billion.
The sudden population surge has been a function of two opposite
trends: the gradual slowing down of the growth rate in the developed
nations, and the rapid acceleration of the rate in the developing countries.
The experience of the developed countries gave rise to the theory of the
demographic transition. It holds that societies tend to move through
three distinct demographic stages: (1) high birth rates and high death
rates, resulting in near stationary populations; (2) high birth rates but
declining death rates, producing growing populations; and finally, (3) low
birth rates and low death rates, re-establishing near stationary populations.
The fundamental question is: What, if anything, can rationally and
humanely be done to accelerate the demographic transition in the developing world ? Is that acceleration realistically possible? It is.
With the help of modern mass communications, which are both more
pervasive and more influential than ever, an increasing number of governments in the developing world are committed to lowering fertility,
and an even larger number to supporting family-planning programmes.
Family-planning services are essential, but can succeed only to the extent
that a demand for lower fertility exists. That demand apparently does
not now exist in sufficient strength in most of the developing countries.
There are a number of policy actions that governments can take to help
stimulate the demand. None of them is easy to implement. All of them
require some re-allocation of scarce resources. Some of them are politically sensitive. But governments must measure those costs against the
immeasurably greater costs in store for societies that procrastinate while
dangerous population pressures mount.
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1. |
We can infer that the reason for India having given up coercive birth control
procedures is that |
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(A) |
they are ineffective in checking population increase. |
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(B) |
they interfere with traditions and rights of citizens. |
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(C) |
India's population is too big for such measures to be taken. |
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(D) |
birth control procedures are extremely controversial. |
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2. |
According to the writer, the most serious issue the world faces in the
immediate future is |
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(A) |
population growth. |
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(B) |
thermonuclear war. |
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(C) |
birth control. |
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(D) |
organized control. |
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3. |
The writer suggests that population growth is a more dangerous and subtle threat
than war because |
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(A) |
there are no safeguards for it. |
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(B) |
it is outside governmental control. |
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(C) |
it is the central determinant of mankind's future. |
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(D) |
it is more difficult to control. |
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4. |
The writer is of the opinion that population growth is |
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(A) |
just as bad as thermonuclear war. |
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(B) |
bound to destroy mankind ultimately. |
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(C) |
of critical importance to man's future. |
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(D) |
not being checked. |
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5. |
What may cause the population of the world
to be smaller than it is today ? |
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(A) |
It may be new and more effective birth control measures. |
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(B) |
It may be lowered fertility rates. |
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(C) |
It may be a large-scale destruction of life brought
about by man or nature. |
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(D) |
It may be a major re-allocation of scarce resources. |
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6. |
Apparently, accelerated population growth |
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(A) |
happened throughout man's history. |
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(B) |
began just before the Industrial Revolution did. |
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(C) |
started when the Industrial Revolution was waning. |
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(D) |
began as the Industrial Revolution gained impetus. |
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7. |
Population growth in the world seems to be
greater |
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(A) |
in the developed countries. |
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(B) |
in the developing countries. |
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(C) |
among the industrialized nations. |
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(D) |
among the rich nations. |
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8. |
According to the theory of demographic
transition, the most unfavourable stage of transition in regard to the
problem of population growth is the |
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(A) |
first stage. |
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(B) |
second stage. |
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(C) |
third stage. |
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(D) |
last stage. |
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9. |
The last paragraph contains a suggestion
that family-planning programmes in developing countries have achieved |
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(A) |
nothing. |
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(B) |
little. |
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(C) |
less than is desirable. |
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(D) |
more than what was expected. |
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10. |
Why, according tot he writer, is family
planning not completely successful in many developing countries ? |
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(A) |
There is no strong demand for lower fertility there. |
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(B) |
The mass communications there are not sufficiently
developed. |
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(C) |
Governments there have not made family planning a policy
matter. |
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(D) |
Family-planning methods cost too much. |
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